It takes a brave person to call the bottom of any market - or the top for that matter. As they say, nobody rings a bell at the top or the bottom and those that try to second guess a trend change often get their heads handed to them on a plate. But - and it’s a big but – some of the signs we have started to see in the gold market over the last few weeks would suggest that, after four years of attrition, we could finally be seeing the start of a sea-change for the precious metals and the miners.
So what gives? Let’s start with China which last month ended years of speculation concerning its gold holdings when it finally declared some official numbers. The People's Bank of China said in a statement that it had boosted bullion assets to 1,658 metric tons, up from 1,054 tons in 2009, when it last updated its figures. These numbers were considered by many to be pretty unimpressive and well short of consensus estimates of around 3,000k-4000k tons. Some, including well known financial author and wealth manager Dr Stephen Leeb, think the true number for Chinese gold holdings could be anywhere between to 15,000 and 18,000 tons.